A Republican Dilemma

I meant to comment on this story when I first saw it, but I’m just now getting around to it.  C’est la vie.

A new statewide poll shows 53 percent of Pennsylvanians — and 66 percent of Republicans — want someone to replace Sen. Arlen Specter.

Here’s the thing.  In a state like Pennsylvania, Specter has been able to get elected as a Republican precisely because he’s a moderate.  Obama won PA by 10 points.  It’s a very blue state.

Yet in the wake of their recent defeats in both Congress and the White House, Republicans are circling their wagons.  Most of the base has become convinced that their losses are attributable to the failure of Republicans to be really, truly conservative.  They think Bush betrayed conservativism with his skyrocketing budget deficits, and they think they lost in November because McCain was a maverick and not sufficiently conservative.

So now the base is practically frothing at the mouth, ready to punish any Republican whose conservative credentials are questionable.  Thus, Specter is poised to lose a primary challenge in 2010 to a much more hardline conservative, as that’s now what the base is demanding.  But any Republican less moderate than Specter can’t win a Senate general election in PA.  So the base is going to kick Specter out only to send a rabid rightwinger into the general who’ll get killed.

This pattern might repeat itself many times at least in 2010, if not beyond.  And then the already very marginalized Republican minority will become completely irrelevant.  They won’t even have enough votes to filibuster.  They already don’t have enough votes in the House to have any impact on any legislation, at all.

Fun stuff.

Faux State Of The Union

It’s really funny to see the reactions of the Republicans in the chamber.  There are some lines that they know they shouldn’t clap for, and some lines they know they should.  But there’s some confusing stuff in between they’re not sure what to do with.  Like when Obama said he was letting the Bush tax cuts expire, but if you make under $250,000 a year, your taxes won’t be raised one dime.

Well, they know they should clap at the assertion that taxes won’t be raised on the middle class.  But he mentioned that in the same breath he talked about letting the Bush cuts expire, which they’re opposed to.  What to do?  What to do?

Stand there and look sheepish, I guess.

I Don’t Actually Hate To Say It

I told you so. Several months ago.  And now?

Lieberman Stepped Up Role As Talks Ebbed

While national attention has been heaped on Collins and Nelson, the hidden story of the stimulus negotiations is the role played by Lieberman – a man only weeks removed from a vote that could have cast him out of the Democratic caucus.

The successful passage of the stimulus began with Obama’s decision to pardon Lieberman for the sin of campaigning for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) during the presidential election.

The progressives who wanted Lieberman booted from the Dem caucus and stripped of his committee chair were fools.  Fools, I tell you.

Details, Details

I of course subscribe to the Paul Krugman take on the stimulus: the bill that passed doesn’t go far enough.  It’s not big enough.

That said, looking at a high-level breakdown of the hard numbers will make your head spin.  The dollar figures are just hard to comprehend.

Hank Erwin On The Warpath

He wants kegs registered, alcohol vaporizing machines banned, and salvia divinorum criminalized. Ol’ Hank seems obsessed with what substances other people are putting in their bodies, how they go about it, and wants to make sure that the government has maximum control over what little is allowed.

He’s the pinnacle of small government conservatism!

Let Us Be Clear

House Republicans, 100% of which voted against the stimulus bill, were not voting against wasteful government spending.  They were voting against this:

[Alabama] Education officials estimate the federal package, which the Senate will take up Monday, will keep at least 3,000 teachers from losing their jobs.

Although the plan has drawn criticism from Republicans and others who call the spending wasteful, Alabama educators say they desperately need the money.

Republicans voted against the stimulus bill not for reasons of principle, but for reasons of politics.  They know that if it succeeds in improving economic conditions, the party in power (Democrats) will be rewarded in elections.  If it fails, regardless of who is actually responsible for that failure, the party in power will be punished in elections.  Republicans voted against the stimulus bill purely in hopes of putting the brakes on efforts to revive the economy while Dems have control of Congress and the White House, risks of another Great Depression be damned.  It’s pretty sick.

As long as the Senate doesn’t eff it up too bad, it will pass and it will save “at least” 3,000 teaching jobs just in Alabama, not to mention the millions of jobs it will create all across the country over the next couple of years.

This is not something to demagogue, but Congressional Republicans apparently don’t know any other way to operate.

We Hate Ourselves

The Big Three will use taxpayer money to sue taxpayers.  Words fail me.

No Patience For Pettiness

During my recently light blog/news consumption, I’ve seen some mention of what has passed for conservative outrage lately.  Such as the fact that when Obama retook the oath of office “just to be safe” after Roberts screwed it up the first time, he didn’t use a Bible.  Or the false claim that Obama’s inauguration was vastly more expensive than previous inaugurations.  Or Lowery’s (funny) benediction.  Et cetera, et cetera.

And I have to wonder, is there anyone out there – other than the professional wingnuts who get paid to express outrage at every little action by Democrats — who actually cares about any of this right now?

The grown-ups are busy doing things like closing Guantanamo, ending the American use of torture, helping women fight gender discrimination in the workplace, and making our federal government less secretive and more transparent.

I guess if Glenn Beck wants to let his blood pressure spike over whether oaths are taken on a Bible, that’s his business.  But I think most people in this country aren’t in the mood for such pettiness.  I, for one, am thrilled to see Obama already taking leaps and strides to move our country back toward the spirit and the letter of Constitutional protections from governmental infringement of civil liberties.

Good times.

There Is Only One President At A Time

As a wise man once said, there is only one President at a time.

And now, that President is no longer George W. Bush.

Praise all that is holy.  Amen.

Beer! And Food! Together!

I have not abandoned this blog, and more posts will be forthcoming.

However, most of my bloggy energy lately has been directed at a new venture: Beerlicious.  Please check it out and, if you are so inclined, subscribe via RSS.

I doubt I will completely stop mentioning beer on this blog, but obviously most beer content will now appear over there.

Be Entertained

This is the funniest photo I’ve seen in a long time:

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Via Oddee.

Posted in Fun. Tags: , . 1 Comment »

By The Way

I’m no longer solely a “self-published” author.  I have started writing a monthly beer column for a new magazine, Southern Cigar Lifestyle.  It’s a scrappy little publication with free distribution in cigar shops and some grocery stores in the Birmingham area.  While it may not be large and prestigious, I enjoy writing about beer and it gives me an opportunity to share some knowledge with an audience that has had very limited exposure to craft beer.  And who knows, maybe it will open some doors for more writing gigs in the future.

There will eventually be an operational website with content, but for now you can at least see the PDF.  My column’s on page 16.

The Mandatory End Of Year Post

Collapse of the U.S. financial industry: bad.

The first African American getting elected President of the U.S.: good.

Massive recession producing record unemployment: bad.

Popping of an unsustainable housing bubble: not fun, but necessary.

Renewed levels of intense violence between Israel and the Palestinians: bad.

A more stable Iraq: good.

Heightened tensions between India and Pakistan: bad.

Saying goodbye to the worst President in modern history: so, soooo good.

It’s been a crazy year.  I’m glad it’s over, and I’m really looking forward to some big accomplishments very early in 09 by Obama and a Dem controlled Congress.  The Republicans really, massively, mind-blowingly FUBAR’d the entire country, and it’s going to be a a long and arduous process to put it back together.  Let’s hope the fresh faces are up to the task.

A Sober Discussion Of Weed

Once again, alarob comes forward with a thought-provoking comment I’d like to address in detail, in a new post.  In response to my frustration over Obama’s curt refusal to engage with marijuana legalization advocates, alarob had this to say:

There’s a false dichotomy implied here: Either (A) legalize marijuana and realize nothing but benefits, or (B) pursue a bone-headed, wasteful, anti-freedom enforcement policy. The issue’s a lot more complicated than that. Legalization would not be a bed of roses, and enforcement of existing laws doesn’t have to be oppressive.

Advocates of legal pot overlook the unintended consequences of turning it into a commercialized commodity, even if tobacco-style restrictions were placed on advertising it. I’m amazed by those who actually believe usage would go down once professional manufacturers, marketers, and distributors got into the act. True, government would collect revenue from the sales, but as in the past with tobacco, that would create an incentive for government to tolerate growing consumption, hence growing addiction and health problems. “But it’s no worse than alcohol.” Fine, let’s assume that’s true. Would it be good public policy to increase the rate of alcohol consumption? The most absurd thing I hear people say about marijuana is that it’s not “really” addictive, or that it’s “only psychological.”

But even if I’m wrong on every point, and if legalization could be shown to be the greatest public good since hot and cold running water, it would still be a political impossibility. This is one issue on which the liberal/libertarian blogosphere is way out of touch with the rest of the electorate. If Obama were to legalize marijuana, he’d pay a much heavier political penalty than Clinton did with his early effort to champion gay soldiers — which ended up as a retreat to the justly ridiculed “don’t ask, don’t tell” compromise.

So the most significant fact is that legalizing marijuana is an unattainable goal in 2008, and any politician who tried it would be on a fool’s errand. Talk about a waste of resources: The sooner this issue leaves the national stage, the better. The transition team’s terse reply to S. Man says, in effect, “President-elect Obama is not a fool.”

While this subject is not as high of a priority for me as it is for Loretta Nall, I’d like to make several points in reply.  First, there is a charge of a false dichotomy: legalizing marijuana is pure goodness, while continued enforcement of current laws is pure evil.  I don’t subscribe to either caricatured position.  My post was pretty short and I wasn’t trying to delve into the complexities of marijuana pros and cons; I agree the issue is complex.  There are some benefits to the drug being illegal, and there would be some drawbacks to it being legal.  Obviously I hold the position that the benefits of legalization outweigh the drawbacks, and I would like to see U.S. federal drug policy changed.  But I don’t base that on oversimplifications,  though the medium of blogging lends itself to shallow treatments of complex issues.

Alarob then touches on some matters of health risks and usage rates.  With regard to health risks, I find it difficult to sort through the various reports, because most people cite reports with an agenda.  Wikipedia seems to have a pretty good, well-cited article.  Though I’m skeptical of all studies on the topic, it seems safe to say that at worst, marijuana is no more addictive than alcohol or tobacco, both of which are legal.  And the most notable health risks associated with tobacco smoking — emphysema, cancer, and heart disease — are probably no worse (and possibly better) with marijuana smoking.  Of course all of this is complicated by the fact that most of the information we have on the health risks associated with marijuana involves the use of unregulated, illegally-purchased products.  Some ill health effects noted in existing studies may be related to contaminants in the unregulated products or other factors in illegal drug use, factors that could change if the drug was legalized and regulated.

Alarob’s next point is that those of us arguing in favor of legalizing marijuana are “way out of touch with the rest of the electorate.”  I think that considerably overstates the support for federal laws making pot illegal.  The most recent information I could find with an admittedly quick and dirty Google search is this bit on a 2006 Zogby poll claiming that “Nationwide, 46% supported making marijuana policy a state option, while 53% did on the East Coast and 55% on the West Coast.”  The poll also pegs Democratic support of repealing federal laws on the substance at 59%.  And the Dems have overwhelming control of both the legislative and executive branches of government now.

And the poll numbers of course don’t provide any insight to how educated people’s opinions are on this subject.  Various factions in this country have engaged in a ridiculous amount of fearmongering about marijuana, and it seems blindlingly obvious that many citizens’ opinions on this subject would be skewed by misconceptions.  If I thought marijuana was more dangerous than alcohol and tobacco and posed all sorts of insidious threats, I’d probably oppose its legalization, too.  I’m sure that sort of thinking is common, but it’s wrong.  A coordinated campaign of education on the topic could probably easily sway public opinion enough to make legalization politically feasible.

Alarob begins his final paragraph by stating, “So the most significant fact is that legalizing marijuana is an unattainable goal in 2008.”  Which I agree with.  But it’s not an unattainable goal for the duration of the likely eight years of an Obama presidency.  If he took the problems of current federal drug laws and benefits of marijuana legalization seriously and decided to make it a long term goal, he could start using language right now that prepares the country for an eventual push towards a more sane drug policy by 2016.  Instead of flatly stating that “President-elect Obama is not in favor of the legalization of marijuana,” they could have said something along the lines of “the dangers of marijuana use and the potential benefits of legalization merit further study, and President-elect Obama is not prepared to support legalization at this time” or some such equivocating position.  Anything to leave the door open for a closer look, rather than adhering to the myth-based dogma that has dominated national politics on this subject for decades.

No Doobies For You

As I previously noted, the most popular question in the first round of Obama’s “Open for Questions” feature was on the topic of marijuana legalization.  Somehow I missed the fact that they issued responses to all the most popular questions way back on December 15th.  In which Obama dashed all hopes for a new, rational approach to this arm of federal drug policy:

Q: “Will you consider legalizing marijuana so that the government can regulate it, tax it, put age limits on it, and create millions of new jobs and create a billion dollar industry right here in the U.S.?” S. Man, Denton

A: President-elect Obama is not in favor of the legalization of marijuana.

So there you have it.  Taxpayer money and limited law enforcement resources will continue to be wasted on finding, arresting, prosecuting, and incarcerating non-violent users of a non-dangerous substance.  Law enforcement resources that could be better spent on violent offenders.  And massive sums of tax revenue that could be generated from the legal sale of marijuana will continue to end up in the pockets of illegal dealers selling an unregulated product.

Not that Obama ever hinted at anything different.  He didn’t campaign on promising a new approach to the Drug War.  But this is still frustrating nonetheless.

Merry Christmas!

From Bill O’Reilly’s cat.

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Let The Conspiracy Theorizing Commence

This is the stuff Hollywood blockbusters are made of:

I don’t usually reveal sources, but I think this is incredibly important. Michael Connell died in a plane crash last night. He was a key witness in the Ohio election fraud case that I have been reporting on. More importantly, however, he had information that he was ready to share.

You see, Mike Connell set-up the alternate email and communications system for the White House. He was responsible for creating the system that hosted the infamous GWB43.com accounts that Karl Rove and others used. When asked by Congress to provide these emails, the White House said that they were destroyed. But in reality, what Connell is alleged to have done is move these files to other servers after having allegedly scrubbed the files from all “known” Karl Rove accounts.

In addition, I have reason to believe that the alternate accounts were used to communicate with US Attorneys involved in political prosecutions, like that of Don Siegelman. This is what I have been working on to prove for over a year. In fact, it was through following the Siegelman-Rove trail that I found evidence leading to Connell. That is how I became aware of him. Mike was getting ready to talk. He was frightened.

Treasury’s Bailout Of Auto Makers Is A Go

The bad:

Detroit’s Big Three also must make their wage structure with the United Auto Workers union competitive with foreign-owned carmakers who manufacture in the United States by the end of next year.

That last point was a sticky issue in the failed congressional talks, when Senate Republicans demanded that the UAW accept the same wage structure as foreign-owned competitors by the end of 2009.

Bush backed them up on that in his plan. [...]

The move amounts to tearing up a collective bargaining agreement, and seriously weakens the UAW’s future negotiating position.

The good:

Under Bush’s plan, though, Friday’s terms can be renegotiated with the Obama administration, which takes office Jan. 20.

So theoretically, everyone wins.  If you happen to have a very perverse understanding of the word “win.”

Bush doesn’t have to watch America’s largest auto manufacture collapse while he’s in office, but he also gets to take credit for driving a hard line on the UAW, setting terms that would effectively destroy the union if they were to remain in place.  But Obama will certainly renegotiate those terms as soon as he takes office, removing the union-destroying requirements.

The ugly: the economy is falling deeper and deeper into a hole with each passing day, and demand for new cars is low, low, low.  It’s hard to imagine demand increasing any next year; if anything, I suspect it will go even lower.  And that’s hardcore bad news if you’re a giant auto maker on the brink of failure already.  It’s hard to see how they come out ahead.

Rick Warren

I’ll outsource my comments on this topic to Ezra Klein, who I think has it just right:

This might be a wise political calculation on Obama’s part. But it is a cruel thing to ask of his coalition. There’s a time to pander to intolerance, and it is called the election. The election is over. January 20th is the inauguration. Pro-choice women and gays were a significant part of Obama’s coalition, and they’re being forced to accept that the candidate they worked for will use the election they won to elevate a powerful religious leader who works often and publicly against their interests. For them, the day will be darkened.

I’m Too Cynical To Be Surprised

From today’s Mobile Press-Register:

DAPHNE — A downtown advocacy group is demanding that the city shut down the drug and alcohol addiction treatment center located near the center of town.

More than 80 supporters of the Olde Towne Daphne Association went to Monday’s City Council meeting to express opposition to renewing the city business license for Townsend Recovery.

Of course, living or working near a place that by its very nature attracts a large number of drug addicts is a scary thing.  Surely crime rates are higher near drug treatment centers?  Chris Hill, spokesman for the Association says so:

Hill said that since Townsend’s operations began, there have been increased incidents of speeding and “erratic driving” in the area.

Oops! Not true:

However, Lt. Jud Beedy said Tuesday that Daphne police have no reports indicating an increase in traffic problems or criminal activity in the neighborhood.

Not only that, but even though the center has been in operation for almost a year, “Some of the residents said they only heard about the clinic’s presence in recent weeks.” In other words, it hasn’t affected them in the slightest.  No ill effects whatsoever.  But gosh darnit, there are drug addicts getting treatment instead of getting gang raped in prison.  SURELY WE CAN’T LET THIS GO ON ANY LONGER.  Must… shut… them… down.

Oh how I love lynch mobs.

Torture Makes Us Less Safe

“Matthew Alexander” writes what the reality-based community has always known: American use of torture has made us less safe, not more.

My team of interrogators had successfully hunted down one of the most notorious mass murderers of our generation, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq and the mastermind of the campaign of suicide bombings that had helped plunge Iraq into civil war. But instead of celebrating our success, my mind was consumed with the unfinished business of our mission: fixing the deeply flawed, ineffective and un-American way the U.S. military conducts interrogations in Iraq. I’m still alarmed about that today.

I’m not some ivory-tower type; I served for 14 years in the U.S. Air Force, began my career as a Special Operations pilot flying helicopters, saw combat in Bosnia and Kosovo, became an Air Force counterintelligence agent, then volunteered to go to Iraq to work as a senior interrogator. What I saw in Iraq still rattles me — both because it betrays our traditions and because it just doesn’t work. [...]

Torture and abuse cost American lives.

I learned in Iraq that the No. 1 reason foreign fighters flocked there to fight were the abuses carried out at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo. Our policy of torture was directly and swiftly recruiting fighters for al-Qaeda in Iraq. The large majority of suicide bombings in Iraq are still carried out by these foreigners. They are also involved in most of the attacks on U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq. It’s no exaggeration to say that at least half of our losses and casualties in that country have come at the hands of foreigners who joined the fray because of our program of detainee abuse. The number of U.S. soldiers who have died because of our torture policy will never be definitively known, but it is fair to say that it is close to the number of lives lost on Sept. 11, 2001. How anyone can say that torture keeps Americans safe is beyond me — unless you don’t count American soldiers as Americans.

I consider the truths here to be self-evident.  If we torture, then we are evil.  And if we are evil, it is easy for Islamic terrorists to recruit people willing to become suicide bombers to kill us.  This is 1+1=2 kind of stuff.

And yet the New York Times finds it morally acceptable to run an op-ed just four days ago by someone arguing that torture is the only way to get information out of a suspect to stop a “ticking time bomb”.  Even though, as Alexander’s first-hand experience proves, you get better information from suspects using non-coercive interrogation techniques.

Our country is sick.

Stimulation, Not Proration

As widely expected, Riley announced budget proration yesterday — the most severe in almost 50 years.

I’m surprised that none of the major media news coverage thus far has made any mention of the likelihood of Obama signing a massive stimulus bill almost immediately upon taking office, a bill that would include aid to state and local governments for the express purpose of preventing large scale budget cuts.

Certainly AL has no choice but to operate on the assumption that no federal aid will be forthcoming; nothing is certain in politics.  Proration is absolutely necessary at this time.  But support for the stimulus is widespread, even among a growing number of conservatives.  Support for it among Democrats is practically universal, and the Dems will have larger majorities starting in January, along with the support of a President eager to pass a stimulus bill ASAP.

And although lofty concepts like “reason” and “logic” often have infuriatingly little effect on legislation, I still feel compelled to point out that the arguments of the minority opposed to a fat stimulus bill are flawed.  A prime example (emphasis mine):

“I believe that government spending on infrastructure is probably one of the best investments we can make,” DeMint, a Greenville Republican, said. “But doing it with borrowed money doesn’t make sense. I don’t believe that more deficit federal spending at this time is the way to get us out of a recession.”

Actually, the notion that something like an infrastructure project building/repairing roads that will still be in use decades from now should be paid for entirely by current tax revenue is what makes no sense.  Why should today’s taxpayers foot the entire cost of a road that will also be used by future taxpayers?  That’s the best example I can imagine of a scenario where borrowing money to fund government spending makes perfect sense.  Let tomorrow’s taxpayers share some of the burden for government spending from which they benefit.

Anyway, as I said, logic doesn’t always play the role it should.  But the chorus of economists acknowledging that a large stimulus package funded by deficit spending is the only hope we have of avoiding a 2nd Great Depression is growing louder with each passing day.  I’m confident we’ll see it, and it will be on Obama’s desk as close as humanly possible to Day 1.  I do not believe the spending cuts in AL will need to continue much past that point.

Net Neutrality

Much weeping and gnashing of teeth has taken place in the blogosphere today over this WSJ article which pretty unambigiously claims Google is moving away from past support for net neutrality in favor of agreements with ISPs to prioritize its content:

The celebrated openness of the Internet — network providers are not supposed to give preferential treatment to any traffic — is quietly losing powerful defenders.

Google Inc. has approached major cable and phone companies that carry Internet traffic with a proposal to create a fast lane for its own content, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Google has traditionally been one of the loudest advocates of equal network access for all content providers.

At risk is a principle known as network neutrality: Cable and phone companies that operate the data pipelines are supposed to treat all traffic the same — nobody is supposed to jump the line.

This would indeed be bad news, if the 800 lb. internet gorilla were abandoning support for net neutrality.  Fortunately, Google says “nuh uhh“:

Google has offered to “colocate” caching servers within broadband providers’ own facilities; this reduces the provider’s bandwidth costs since the same video wouldn’t have to be transmitted multiple times. We’ve always said that broadband providers can engage in activities like colocation and caching, so long as they do so on a non-discriminatory basis.

All of Google’s colocation agreements with ISPs — which we’ve done through projects called OpenEdge and Google Global Cache — are non-exclusive, meaning any other entity could employ similar arrangements. Also, none of them require (or encourage) that Google traffic be treated with higher priority than other traffic. In contrast, if broadband providers were to leverage their unilateral control over consumers’ connections and offer colocation or caching services in an anti-competitive fashion, that would threaten the open Internet and the innovation it enables.

Despite the hyperbolic tone and confused claims in Monday’s Journal story, I want to be perfectly clear about one thing: Google remains strongly committed to the principle of net neutrality, and we will continue to work with policymakers in the years ahead to keep the Internet free and open.

Google is going to foot the bill for putting servers directly on ISPs networks so web surfers’ requests for a video won’t have to go from A to B to C to B back to A, they’ll just have to go from A to B to A.  And they are not demanding that any other content providers be prevented from having the same access.

It’s not 100% net neutral, because content providers lacking Google’s mad cash can’t afford to colocate servers in this manner, so Google is getting the benefit of being such a huge company with deep resources.  But then again, Google gets a lot of benefits of being such a huge company with deep resources.  That’s one of the features of capitalism.

The real nightmare would be if a major content provider were to cut a deal with the ISPs to get exclusive rights to X% of the pipe.  That would squeeze all other content into a smaller piece of the pipe and privilege the major provider in a very unfair manner.  This doesn’t strike me as being such a deal.  And Google remains adamant that they are opposed to such deals being struck.

Collapse

Shorter Yves Smith: The entire auto manufacturing industry in the U.S. is doomed.

Americans Love Weed

The Obama transition team’s “Open for Questions” web page is no longer accepting new submissions or votes.  But the results have been archived, and here are the top three questions as voted on by the internet-connected American public:

“Will you consider legalizing marijuana so that the government can regulate it, tax it, put age limits on it, and create millions of new jobs and create a billion dollar industry right here in the U.S.?”

“What will you do as President to restore the Constitutional protections that have been subverted by the Bush Administration and how will you ensure that our system of checks and balances is renewed?”

“What will you do to establish transparency and safeguards against waste with the rest of the Wall Street bailout money?”

All very good questions.  It will be very interesting to see if Obama takes steps towards ending the marijuana front in the drug war.  There are copious well-reasoned arguments for legalizing marijuana, and no particularly substantive arguments to support our current federal laws on the drug.  Pretty impressive that a question on that topic was voted into the top spot.