9 Numbers

Or: McCain’s Impossible Coalition

The number of American voters who self-identify as Republican is dropping through the floor right now, while Democratic party identification is up. Recent Pew Research polling found just 27% of voters identifying as Republican, while 36% identified as Democrat and 37% identified as Independent. That’s a 9% advantage for Democrats. Compare that to 2004, when Dems held a tiny 2% advantage, 35% to 33%.

Additionally, in 2004 Dems held an insignificant margin among Independents with only 12% leaning their way vs. 11% leaning Republican. Fast forward to 2008 where the Dem lead among Independents has opened up to 15% – 10%.

What this means in practical terms is that in 2004, all the Bush campaign had to do was pander to the Republican base and Get Out The Vote. With party identification so narrowly split, whoever succeeds in getting more of his base to the polls wins. Throw in some Swiftboating and it’s a done deal.

In 2008, with Democratic party identification running so high, combined with Obama’s voter registration drives and proven grassroots GOTV skills, McCain fully understands he cannot win solely by pandering to the Republican base. He can only win with a giant slice of the Independent Pie. Unfortunately, neither can he win without the Republican base. He needs both. And in a political envrionment where 63% of Americans believe the Iraq war was not worth fighting and the incumbent Republican President has a mere 28% approval rating, it is blindingly obvious that the Republican base and the Independent voters have widely divergent positions on the key issues.

McCain has almost an impossible task before him. He has to appeal both to those who feel the war was worth it, and those who feel it wasn’t. To those who oppose abortion at all times under all circumstances, and those who believe in a woman’s right to choose. To those who believe torture is acceptable to stop future terrorist attacks, and to those who believe torture is morally reprehensible at all times. To those who support government-run Social Security, and to those who favor private accounts. To those who want to see the U.S. act to help end global warming, and to those who believe there is no such thing as global warming. To those… well, you get the point. I could go on and on.

Which, i believe, explains his near constant flip-flopping on the issues. Steve Benen has done a bang-up job cataloging all these flip-flops.

So, McCain is on record saying “Without privatization, I don’t see how you can possibly, over time, make sure that young Americans are able to receive Social Security benefits.” And he is on record saying “My friends, I do not and will not privatize Social Security.” He is on record saying “in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade.” And he is on record saying “I do believe that it’s very likely or possible that the Supreme Court should — could overturn Roe v. Wade, which would then return these decisions to the states, which I support.” He once sought out the endorsements of religious extremists Rod Parsley and John Hagee, but utlimately renounced their endorsements after the men’s craziest statements began raising eyebrows in the media. And on and on.

One is left to assume McCain is trying to simultaneously hold mutually exclusive positions on a long list of issues. He must be hoping that his reputation as a Maverick Straight Talker will lead to everyone believing only his statements with which they agree. Those who support Roe v. Wade will believe the “real” McCain will appoint justices who would uphold it, while those who oppose Roe will believe the “real” McCain wil appoint justices who would overturn it.

It’s one helluva risky game. And while i often lament the ignorance of the American electorate, it’s very difficult to believe McCain can successfuly cobble together a coalition filled with voters standing on opposite sides of so many key issues, with both sides believing McCain’s “real” position is the one they agree with.

McCain is currently down about 6 points in national polling, and i believe that will get even worse as more people figure out McCain’s reputation as a Straight Talker is pure fantasy.